A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
